Investments
USD/MXN: Banxico’s hawkishness supports Peso, but market turmoil poses downside risks – Commerzbank
Banxico’s determined stance in the fight against inflation supports the Peso. However, if the recent market turmoil weighs on the outlook for the US economy, economists at Commerzbank see downside risks for MXN due to Mexico’s close ties with the US.
How much support will Banxico provide?
“As soon as inflation slowly approaches its target again, Banxico should have more room for rate cuts. Nevertheless, it will probably continue to secure an attractive real interest rate. By comparison, the Fed’s rate cuts threaten to take more of a toll on monetary policy credibility, so we do not see the Peso at a disadvantage against the Dollar due to rate cuts.”
“There are, of course, major risks to our forecast from the recent market turmoil. Banxico does not see major contagion risks thanks to the good capitalization of the Mexican banking sector and intends to continue to focus on the fight against inflation. However, given the close linkages with the US, it would significantly weigh on the MXN outlook if the outlook for the US economy deteriorates.”
Source: Commerzbank Research
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.